A very simple question for this short post: what length pause (trend < 0) in global mean surface temperature could be simulated in a warming climate?
Continue reading Lengthy simulated pauses in global mean surface temperature
Category Archives: GCMs
Rates of change in global temperatures
The recent WMO press release on the climate of the 2001-2010 period highlighted that global temperature change was accelerating. Although this could be a misleading statement, should we even be expecting global temperature changes to be accelerating at present? Continue reading Rates of change in global temperatures
Reliability of regional climate trends
Climate information for the future is usually presented in the form of scenarios: plausible and consistent descriptions of future climate without probability information. This suffices for many purposes, but for the near term, say up to 2050, scenarios of emissions of greenhouse gases do not diverge much and we could work towards climate forecasts: calibrated probability distributions of the climate in the future. Continue reading Reliability of regional climate trends
Constraining projections with observations
Can past observations be used to help constrain future temperature projections? This question is particularly relevant given the last decade which has shown relatively less warming than expected. Continue reading Constraining projections with observations
Updated comparison of simulations and observations
Now that 2012 is over, it is time to update a comparison of simulations and observations of global mean temperatures.
Continue reading Updated comparison of simulations and observations
Visualising the role of natural variability
A new analysis by Clara Deser and colleagues (accepted for Nature Climate Change), provides some fantastic visualisations of the crucial role of natural variability in how we will experience climate. Continue reading Visualising the role of natural variability
Global temperatures over the past decade
It is well known that the past decade or so has seen less global warming than might have been expected – but what is the cause? This is more of a discussion post, rather than any new analysis. Continue reading Global temperatures over the past decade
Predicting changes in North Atlantic temperatures
The Earth is a complex system of interacting components, such as the atmosphere and ocean, which produce a wide variety of natural variability. This natural variability ensures that the evolution of a particular region’s climate, e.g. that of Western Europe, could be completely different to another region, or indeed the global mean climate. Such variability can impact on many areas of society; for example winter energy usage, or agriculture in sensitive regions. Continue reading Predicting changes in North Atlantic temperatures